2014 U.S. Senate Scoreboard (9/14/14)

by JASmius




A big collapse in North Carolina this week....

(Incumbents in bold; all polling via Rasmussen Reports)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

ALABAMA:  Jeff Sessions (R) - unopposed
IDAHO:  James Risch (R) 54%, Nels Mitchell (D) 29%
MAINE:  Susan Collins (R) 59%, Shenna Bellows (D) 31%
MISSISSIPPI:  Thad Cochran (R) 48%, Travis Childers (D) 31%
MONTANA:  Steve Daines (R) 55%, Amanda Curtis (D) 35% (GOP pickup)

NEBRASKA:  Ben Sasse (R) 51%, David Domina (D) 34%
OKLAHOMA:  James Inhofe (R) 58%, Matt Silverstein (D) 27%
SOUTH CAROLINA:  Lindsey Graham (R) 49%, Brad Hutto (D) 30%
SOUTH DAKOTA:  Mike Rounds (R) 44%, Rick Weiland (D) 29%, Larry Pressler (RINO) 18% (GOP pickup)

TEXAS:  John Cornyn (R) 47%, David Alameel (D) 29%
TENNESSEE:  Lamar Alexander (R) 47%, Gordon Ball (D) 32%
WEST VIRGINIA:  Shelly Moore Capito (R) 50%, Natalie Tennant (D) 33% (GOP pickup)

WYOMING:  Mike Enzi (R) 63%, Charlie Hardy (D) 27%


SOLID REPUBLICAN

GEORGIA:  David Perdue (R) 46%, Michelle Nunn (D) 40%
KENTUCKY:  Mitch McConnell (R) 46%, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41%


LEANING REPUBLICAN

ALASKA:  Dan Sullivan (R) 47%, Mark Begich (D) 45% (GOP pickup) KANSAS:  Pat Roberts (R) 44%, Chad Taylor (D) 40%
LOUISIANA:  Bill Cassidy (R) 44%, Mary Landrieu (D) 41% (GOP pickup)


TOSS-UP

IOWA:  Bruce Braley (D) 43%, Joni Ernst (R) 43%


LEANING DEMOCRAT

ARKANSAS:  Mark Pryor (D) 44%, Tom Cotton (R) 43%
COLORADO:  Mark Udall (D) 44%, Cory Gardner (R) 42%


SOLID DEMOCRAT

MICHIGAN:  Gary Peters (D) 45%, Terri Lynn Land (R) 39%
MINNESOTA:  Al Franken (D) 50%, Mike McFadden (R) 42%
NORTH CAROLINA:  Kay Hagen (D) 45%, Tom Tillis (R) 39%

SAFE DEMOCRAT

DELAWARE:  Chris Coons (D) - no polling, prohibitive favorite
HAWAII:  Brian Schatz (D) - no polling, prohibitive favorite
ILLINOIS:  Ali Dickbar al-Durbini (D) 48%, Jim Oberweis (R) 38%
MASSACHUSETTS:  Ed Markey (D) - no polling, prohibitive favorite
NEW HAMPSHIRE:  Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50%, Scott Brown (R) 41%
NEW JERSEY:  Corey Booker (D) 48%, Jeff Bell (R) 35%
NEW MEXICO:  Tom Udall (D) 54%, Allen Weh (R) 33%
OREGON: Jeff Merkley (D) 48%, Monica Wehby (R) 35%
RHODE ISLAND:  Jack Reed (D) - no polling, prohibitive favorite
VIRGINIA:  Mark Warner (D) 53%, Ed Gillespie (R) 36%

HIGH:  GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, Iowa, Arkansas, and Colorado for a gain of eight seats and a 53-47 majority in the next U.S. Senate.

MEDIAN:  GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, and maybe Iowa for a gain of five or six seats and either a 51-49 majority or 50-50 split in the next U.S. Senate.

LOW:  GOP picks up Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, but the Democrats pick up Kansas, for a net GOP gain of two seats, leaving the Democrats to retain a 53-47 majority in the next U.S. Senate.

I don't know what's happened to Tom Tillis's campaign, but the bottom appears to have fallen out of it.  Probably the usual barrage of unanswered hit ads the everybody laments but every campaign uses because they are always so devastatingly effective.  At least for Democrats, anyway.

Tillis has 51 days to turn it around, and his party has the same amount of time to heed the warning his sudden struggles herald.